After months of anticipation, a group including Google and a number of mobile-handset makers, cellular carriers and other technology companies plans to make new software available -- free of charge -- to power mobile phones that will start hitting the market in the second half of 2008. The move paves the way for mass-market cellphones that will bring consumers' experience on the mobile Web closer to that of personal computers. And Google is betting that its ad revenue will surge as a result.It sounds like a winner for both companies and consumers.
Google said it would likely share revenue from ads with wireless carriers; the carriers then could reduce the cost of handsets or wireless fees for consumers. Google also could make money in other ways, possibly by getting a share of monthly revenue from carriers or selling a rate plan for a package of applications.Elsewhere, it looks like Mac addicts are whistling past the graveyard.
Google is counting on the many developers who build applications for PCs and the Web to start making products for the phone. Google said the Android platform will make it easy for developers to write applications that meld different data sources, such as a service that shows users where their friends are at any given moment on a map. For U.S. consumers, Android could speed the arrival of advanced applications already available abroad, such as multiplayer gaming.
Two days ago, at the Search Engine Strategies Conference in San Jose, Marissa Mayer commented on the iPhone, highlighting how well Google applications worked on it, and admiring the rich user-interface features.The iPhone is pretty so Google won't kill it?
Obviously, Google executives have a very high admiration for the iPhone, and it’s common knowledge that many of their top engineers are also devoted Apple computer and iPod users.
Some have opined that the proposed Gphone could be intended to compete with the popular iPhone, but there’s some reason to not believe that speculation.
The assertion that this is not competition for the iPhone doesn't make much sense for me. It looks like this is the Mac-PC competition of the 80s all over again. More from the post referenced above: only two second-party applications have been allowed on the iPhone thus far, and Google built both of those: Google Maps and YouTube for the iPhone. Meanwhile, Google is partnering with 30 or more other companies to produce applications and hardware for these phones and that's just the start.
If I had to make a prediction, I'd say that we're about to see Apple get its brains beaten out all over again and for exactly the same reasons. Other than the iRobots who would buy anything Apple sells, this is going to provide cheaper and more flexible non-iPhone handsets for everyone. I've played with a couple of iPhones. They're very nice, but their web browsing is too slow and their price is way too high. Give me a cheap, open source mobile IP platform and I'd consider buying it. An iPhone? No way.
Update: This post was linked at some Mac fanatic website and now all the
Personally, I'm still running XP and I really like it. I can do everything I want to do on it. And yes, iRobots, I can even edit videos and music! No, really! I can! Anyway, Google's model is a lot closer to the one I eventually see myself adopting. My next machine will most likely be a Linux box because it will do what I want to do and it will be cheaper. Cheap is good.
Update 2: I did a follow up post to this.
11 comments:
So, let me get this straight.
The iPhone is doomed because Google's going to release telephone system software a year from now? Just like the iPod was doomed because Microsoft was coming out with the Zune, or PlaysForSure, or any of the junk they announced a year early that failed to even put a dent in iPod sales?
What Google may come out with in a year may indeed be competitive with what the iPhone looks like a year from now (as an iPhone owner, I hope it does). Or it may completely suck. Or it might not be in a shipping product until mid-2009. Until it comes out, though, it's vaporware, and is about as much of a threat to the iPhone as a little kid wearing a halloween mask.
Nokia is will Apple lunch.
Microsoft will eat Apple's Lunch.
Java will eat Apple's Lunch.
Google will eat Apple's Lunch.
Just like when Microsoft can't out innovate in OS.
No one will out innovate Apple in software stack.
Apple's OOP Stack is coming on at 20 years with NeXTStep OOP and Objective-C. Google can't compete with it by Open Sourcing. How long has Java been available in Phone development and why does iphone make it look it was designed by 2 years old.
I can guarantee that google will be using WebKit,
an Apple owned open source technology for its browser stack.
This is more fun than posting about Ron Paul!
You've started a religious war here! ;)
KT, I think you've underestimated the market. If its a cool gadget, it doesn't matter if its not the optimal technology - people will still buy it.
Don't get me wrong, I'm looking forward to the release of the gPhone - but I think all it will do is drive Apple to improve their phone faster. Who wins in the end - if anyone - is still up in the air. The two products will potentially appeal to very different markets. For business uses the iPhone misses the mark. Hopefully the gPhone aims for this nitch.
Doing "OS-only" typically leads to horrible user experience. Examples:
Palm, after they split the HW and software divisions.
Microsoft-- duhhh!
LINUX-- superb technology 31 delightful designed-by-commitee incompatible flavors.
Predictions. Aren't they beautiful. If you're correct, you can brag. If you're way off, no one will remember what you said a year from now. In the mean time, you have probably quadrupled your hits with an anti-Apple post.
Good work!
Jobs said the iPhone contained about 100 patented technologies. The multitouch interface connects with the user intuitively making the experience pleasurable. Apple's had a decade of ARM processor experience. The iPhone runs on a 700 mhz ARM that has a trusted computing environment built in for security. Google's minimum processor is a A 200MHz ARM 9. Google wants an open playing field with their software in a preferential position, not an iPhone solution. They want Google data solutions for low cost phones.
Whistling past the graveyard?
A relatively-inexpensive gPhone is going to take market-share away from the notoriously-pricey iPhone?
When people were lining-up ahead of time - at the original price - for the iPhone?
What makes you think that type of person would chose a gPhone over an iPhone?
I'll stop now, thats more than enough rhetorical questions for any post. :)
Thanks for all the comments!
Kelly, this was kind of a throwaway post I did this morning when I saw the WSJ article. Wow!
pffxv, you're right. My hit count is way up!
tom b, I use Windows XP. I use IE 7. I like them. They do what I need done. I haven't paid a penny for either of them in years. I just downloaded OpenOffice and I'll be setting my parents up with that pretty soon. All of the new bells and whistles in the new operating systems don't do anything I really want. Why pay for them?
mjvlev, good points. However, even after having people line up for the new OS and the new iPhone, Apple still doesn't have dominant market share anywhere but the MP3 player. If your product is only available in a handful of stores, almost any amount of demand will result in lines forming.
So what do you think of open office for the casual user? Do you see it as a realistic alternative?
Kelly, from what I've seen, Open Office looks and feels almost exactly like MS Office. I like it a lot so far. It will even import (and presumably export) MS Office file formats. Since I haven't really used any of the features introduced since Office XP, I'm happy with it.
Google's Docs and Spreadsheets is great, too, since they save into very web-accessible documents. It's all about the URL to me. I've grown to hate shared hard drives at work. I just want the URL.
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