Friday, March 06, 2009

No one Knows What the Rules are any More

... and that's why the market is tanking.

“It’s the Obama bear market,” said Dan Veru, who helps oversee $2.8 billion at Palisade Capital Management in Fort Lee, New Jersey. “We don’t know what the rules are in so many different areas the government is touching.”
Here's the DJIA since the passage of the Stimuloid Porkgasm™, thanks to the Puppy Blender.


As my financial guru has always said, the markets predict the economy about 6 months into the future. No one knows what's going on here at all. As an example, yesterday I read something about Obama closing down consideration of using Yucca Mountain to store nuclear waste. That's a bad sign for building new nuclear power plants. The cap and trade tax plan is bad for coal-fired plants. He's put all kinds of areas off limits for drilling, so we're not going for oil.

The message: No more energy for you! So don't invest in energy or manufacturing. Meanwhile, his position on banks is pretty bad as well. The mortgage bill he's pushing will allow mortgage contracts to be rewritten, always in favor of the borrower. Don't invest in banks, even the good ones.

His solution for medical costs is to reduce what the government pays and open the door to generic drugs. That's very bad for big pharma which relies on high drug costs during the time their drugs are under patent protection to recoup their research costs. So, let's not get into big pharma or medical stocks.

See where this is going? It's a broad assault on the economy by the government. Even granting the bank failures as a problem, there ought to be a few sectors that show signs of hope 6-9 months into the future. Other than low-end necessities, I don't see where the growth is going to come from. Even there, it's bad. WalMart (WMT) is basically unchanged since the Stimuloid Porkgasm™ was passed and has been getting killed since Inauguration Day and even moreso since the election.

Meanwhile, Treasuries are paying next to nothing in interest and their future supply is piling up like a vast mountain waiting to suck more investment money out of the economy.

Anyone who doesn't think this is the Obama Bear Market isn't paying attention to what people are saying with the fruits of their labor. No one knows what the end result of Obama's massive spasms of statism will be. They only know that they will be bad.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

You might like to have a look at this site, which I stumbled across when I was looking for information on how stock prices varied during the Great Depression.

He raises a lot of interesting points.