Friday, May 07, 2010

All Snarking Aside

... it's been a pretty instructive week. Here's what we've learned (or re-learned) from the week's events in Europe.

  • Entitlements make people irrational. The Greeks are destroying their own country after having run up unpayable bills giving themselves goodies they couldn't afford. They're behaving like addicts whose drugs are being taken away.

  • Government interventions in the financial markets take care of small-to-medium problems, not big ones. The Euros and the IMF rolled out a Greek solution larger than anything previously discussed and it was washed away within hours.

  • Spain is screwed. Every event this week was bad news for them.

  • By extension, European banks are screwed. A Greek default would be painful, a Spanish default will be terminal for many of them.

  • Smart money is getting out of Europe. Where it's going is the subject of another post.

  • The Bush team of Bernanke and Paulson are looking smarter every day. Faced with a similar problem, they went to the nuclear option immediately and got a mountain of cash so large that it actually lasted beyond the crisis and left some available for all kinds of earmarkery later. Whatever waste and fraud occured at the end of the TARP money, the contagion was stopped stone, cold dead.

  • The Euros have only one option left and that's the Bush option - the central bank is going to have to print Euros and buy up everything yucky. They're still fighting this notion, but they've not yet seen Spain falter.

    • Addendum: This only works as a one-shot fix. Before you start down this road, you've got to be sure that the people you're rescuing will show fiscal restraint, otherwise this becomes just so much financial heroin. Permanent Greek (and Spanish and Portugese and Italian) budget cuts are a prerequisite for a EuroTARP.

  • Things move faster than governments can react. On Monday Greece was bailed out and by Friday the place was a wreck and money was leaving even faster than before. In between, government officials made ineffectual statements and got run over by the markets.

  • The entitlement society is D-E-A-D, dead, dead, dead. It may thrash around a bit more, but it is dead. Here in the US, we'll continue to get Obama and Waxman and Frank and Pelosi pitching for more and more entitlements, but as wreckage and ruin spreads across Europe from demographic decay and socialist entitlements, only those who believe in compassion™ with religious faith will continue demanding more.
There. That's a start. Comments?

6 comments:

ligneus said...

Who would have thought when Communism fell that the world would be in such a mess just 21 years later. Add to what you've written the Islamic threat and real catastrophe looms such as we haven't seen since the thirties.

Jeff Burton said...

Bernanke and Paulson will only appear smart until the next precipitating event. Then this "one-shot fix" will be shown to be closer to an MG-42 than a single-shot weapon. That is my opinion.

K T Cat said...

Jeff, I'm becoming an optimist about the US. I'll explain this in a future post, but I think our future is pretty bright.

K T Cat said...

ligneus, Europe is in for a world of hurt, just as you say. Mark Steyn's demographic and cultural warnings of doom still stand and this unfolding financial massacre will only exacerbate the problem.

I'm glad I'm blessed to live in the USA.

Wollf Howlsatmoon said...

KT, I'm not much of a Numbers guy, don't really understand Economics any more than one thing from Econ101, and that was the old "Supply and Demand" quote.

That being said, I did learn a new thing about Economics yesterdy.....

The difference between typing an "M" for million, and a "B" for billion.......

Cost my 401k about $6,000.00......

B-Daddy said...

KT,
Nice round up. As for the entitlement society being dead, I am not so sure, as much as I want to hope. You're caveat/addendum about fiscal restraint is what has me worried in the U.S. I don't think we are going to show restraint, and we will just end up printing money and collapsing our economy.